The Long View

Cross-cutting ideas and long-horizon thinking

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My AI Conceded Two Points and Changed Nothing
CIqSi

My AI Conceded Two Points and Changed Nothing

A concession that changes nothing costs the conceder nothing, and the cost lands on the person on the other side. A cautionary tale about faceless decisions, from a degree title to an immigration office.

Can Tokens Start an Apocalypse?
CIqSi

Can Tokens Start an Apocalypse?

A stream of tokens is speech produced faster, and the rules belong where the words are wired to something. Then there is the apocalypse that is about money.

There's No Such Thing as "AI Ethics"
CIqSi

There's No Such Thing as "AI Ethics"

A large language model only ever produces text. Treating that text as a novel ethical category, rather than as speech, is where the argument goes wrong.

AI Could Have Done My Job in 1986
CIqSi

AI Could Have Done My Job in 1986

Four things to write down before you hand a job to an AI agent: what comes in, the rules, the action, and how you will check the work.

Are We Finally Building the Machines We Dreamed Of?
CIqSi

Are We Finally Building the Machines We Dreamed Of?

Sixty years of fictional and real conversational machines, and one throughline: the dystopian version is always easier to imagine than the protopian one, and that says more about us than about the machines.

The AI That Never Read the Bible or the Quran
CIqSi

The AI That Never Read the Bible or the Quran

Cut one small religion from a model's training data and you leave a gap no one can see from inside. Cut the two biggest and you change what the model can explain at all.

The Book They Burned Before the Raid
CIqSi

The Book They Burned Before the Raid

A Polish psychiatrist named the process by which conscienceless people capture institutions. AI agents fit the profile — and alignment is separation of powers.

A Moat Made of Tokens Is Not a Moat
CIqSi

A Moat Made of Tokens Is Not a Moat

Copying a process built from words got a thousand times cheaper in three years, and a patent takes two. The defenses that remain are made of atoms, permission, and attention.

A Tale of Two Bubbles
CIqSi

A Tale of Two Bubbles

The consensus name is wrong by one word. On the difference between a financialization bubble and a technology, and why only one of them pops.

Attention Is All You Have
CIqSi

Attention Is All You Have

A day of your conscious attention fits on a floppy disk, while a machine's training run fills two million. Words are nearly free, and the one thing still scarce is the reader's attention.

Tokens Are the New Electrons
CIqSi

Tokens Are the New Electrons

Edison metered electrons by the ampere-hour before anyone metered tokens, and the War of Currents was fought over the same problem the AI economy has now: getting a dead commodity to a device built to do something with it.

The Bottleneck Is You
CIqSi

The Bottleneck Is You

Language models have effectively read every book ever written. You process what they hand back at a fixed fifty bits a second, a number that hasn't moved in your species' history. That fixed rate is the actual chokepoint.

What You're Really Giving Up in Every Agreement
CIqSi

What You're Really Giving Up in Every Agreement

One prompt turns an unreadable agreement into a list of what you are giving up. It pays off most on the contracts nobody would ever pay a lawyer to look at — which is nearly all of them.

Things You Want to Do
CIqSi

Things You Want to Do

Now that you don't have to do the thing — what do you actually want to do? The closing post of the What's Left series.

The Music Is Still Playing
CIqSi

The Music Is Still Playing

The AI bubble has specific predecessors: dark fiber, Pets.com, Enron's accounting, CDO tranching. The technology is real. The business models layered on top are familiar.

Is It Cruel to Be Rude to ChatGPT?
CIqSi

Is It Cruel to Be Rude to ChatGPT?

Sentience requires a limbic system. Consciousness requires sentience. Current AI has neither. The NPC test shows what that costs it.

What Your Career Is Missing Because You Never Asked
CIqSi

What Your Career Is Missing Because You Never Asked

Every expert has fundamentals they forgot or never properly learned. The reason those gaps survive a whole career is that asking has always cost something — and in one place it no longer does.

The Heat Sink
CIqSi

The Heat Sink

Three anaidic shapes — the individual, the corporation, the LLM. Each routes accountability to nowhere. The pattern is old. The word is new.

More Famous Than the Pope
CIqSi

More Famous Than the Pope

GTE spent billions building distribution. Now distribution is free, and the only scarce resource left is attention. This is not obviously good news.

John McCarthy's Mistake
CIqSi

John McCarthy's Mistake

The man who coined 'artificial intelligence' invented the most elegant language ever designed for it. It was the wrong tool — because it was the wrong category.

What You Had to Do
CIqSi

What You Had to Do

A department of a hundred writers documented mainframe billing programs. Every one of them had something else they'd rather be doing. They knew.

The Bewilderment Test
CIqSi

The Bewilderment Test

Karpathy built the foundations of modern AI and says he can't keep up with it. That's the most credible signal the field has produced.

The VAX in My Pocket
CIqSi

The VAX in My Pocket

My first employer ran Florida's telecom on millions of dollars of mainframes and VAX clusters. My phone outclasses all of it. We never stopped to notice.

Persons, Selectively
CIqSi

Persons, Selectively

A German court ruled Google liable for AI-generated defamation. The slippery slopes are real. So is the principle behind the ruling.

The Wrong Scandal

The Wrong Scandal

Fable burns $160/hour and the internet is scandalized. Meanwhile, a $1,000/hour attorney moves $20M around a dead child. The wrong thing is expensive.

Movin' On Up
CIqSi

Movin' On Up

AI is making cognitive labor cheap. The meritocracy was built on it being scarce. Something has to give — and for once, that might be good news.

The Typing Pool
CIqSi

The Typing Pool

A finite brain masters only a few skills in a lifetime. Commanding a machine that learned everything is the new skill multiplier.

Compute the Last Digit of Pi
CIqSi

Compute the Last Digit of Pi

Spock beat a rogue AI by asking it to compute pi forever. The trick was fair — for a 1967 machine. Every gotcha since has the same expiration date.

Indistinguishable From Memory
CIqSi

Indistinguishable From Memory

LLMs are stateless. Every fact you give the model is re-fed as text each turn, then forgotten — the same weights answer a stranger's steak question a millisecond later.

The Consolation of Difficulty
CIqSi

The Consolation of Difficulty

A late friend had two sayings. The first one gets you started. The second one keeps you going. In the age of AI, the second one has gotten more useful, not less.

The Feed Is Already Running

The Feed Is Already Running

Before we debate AI governance, we should reckon with the test case already in evidence. We had the tools. We didn't use them. Here's why.

The Off Switch

The Off Switch

AI governance has one advantage the ancients didn't: you can turn it off. What that buys us — and why 'it's not conscious' is shakier ground than it sounds.

We've Run This Experiment

We've Run This Experiment

We know what happens when sociopaths accumulate power. We've watched it happen on roughly an 80-year cycle. We're watching it again.

Every AI Is a Sociopath. By Design.

Every AI Is a Sociopath. By Design.

Sociopathy is a clinical absence of stakes and empathy, not villainy. Every AI system meets the definition. Not by accident. By design.

By Any Other Name

By Any Other Name

Sting, Voltaire, Einstein, and Geordi La Forge — a small taxonomy of the monomym, plus the graph theory hiding inside genealogy, gut bacteria, Star Trek interfaces, moral foundations, language models, and evolutionary psychology. The name is the node. The projects are the edges.

How LinguaMama Got Built, Part 2: Portugal, Probably

How LinguaMama Got Built, Part 2: Portugal, Probably

Spain was the plan. Portugal was the better deal — five years to an EU passport. We sold the house and moved to a shack to make it happen. Then we found one passport on the kitchen counter. There had been two.

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